Previously in the Market
July 2024: Mid-Year Summary: Growing but Slowing, Trending With Few Contributing
"If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties."
- Sir Francis Bacon -
The summer months are here and with it, time for reflection. Economic data point to some moderation, but non-recessionary growth remains our base case. There is less room for optimism given June’s bounce, but price trends remain supportive and slower growth has buoyed the rate-cut narrative.
August 2024: Summertime Unwind
"I was taught that the way of progress was neither swift nor easy."
- Marie Curie -
Volatility has resurfaced in the past few weeks, catalyzed by a growth scare and concerns that the Fed is behind the curve. The outsized market moves have been amplified by the unwind of over-extended and leveraged positions. Economic data does point to some moderation, but non-recessionary growth remains our base case. We are seeing far more volatility in stock prices than the underlying earnings and economic estimates.
September 2024: The Soft(ish) Landing Meets a September to Remember
"The Soft(ish) Landing Meets a September to Remember."
- Vince Lombardi -
A busy September is set to feature interest rate cuts, more AI scrutiny, and political debates. While incoming data has been mixed, it is not collapsing, and the global cutting cycle should help reinforce a slow, but non-recessionary backdrop. While we continue to see far more volatility in asset prices than the underlying earnings and economic estimates, odds favor the busy September will continue that trend.