Previously in the Market
October 2024: Geopolitical Risks Growing, But So Are Profits
"He who awaits much can expect little."
- Gabriel Garcia Marquez -
Rising geopolitical tensions and the outcome of the forthcoming US presidential election are sure to play a role in shaping market trends. Fortunately, corporate profits continue to push higher, the economy has remained resilient, and the Federal Reserve has resumed easing. Each are soothing offsets to the unsettling macro backdrop. While we continue to see far more volatility in asset prices than the underlying earnings and economic estimates, the month of October does have a volatile history.
November 2024: Uncertainty Ease
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- Marilyn Vos Savant -
Uncertainty is often the biggest headwind to economic activity, valuations, and investor sentiment. A clear election outcome eased one key uncertainty while the prospects of a pro-growth agenda and light positioning catalyzed the market response. Of course, the efficacy of any new policy, and its impact on central inputs like earnings and economic growth, will need to be closely monitored. While trends across our analytics remain broadly supportive, variability in asset prices should increase going forward.
December 2024: Regime Change
"To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often."
- Winston S. Churchill -
We suspect politics won’t be the only factor undergoing a regime change. Investors will also need to navigate historically wide valuation dispersions, new interest rate policies, and converging growth trends, to name a few. While trends across our analytics remain broadly supportive, variability in asset prices should increase going forward. We suspect the environment is ripe for thoughtful active management.